Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
SAHMREALTIME • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
0.10
Year-over-Year Change
-81.13%
Date Range
12/1/1959 - 7/1/2025
Summary
The Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator tracks the U.S. economy's health by monitoring changes in the unemployment rate, providing an early warning signal for potential recessions.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
The Sahm Rule is an economic indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm that uses the change in the U.S. unemployment rate to identify the start of recessions. It serves as a reliable real-time recession predictor for policymakers and analysts.
Methodology
The indicator is calculated based on the 3-month average change in the national unemployment rate.
Historical Context
The Sahm Rule Indicator is used by the Federal Reserve and other institutions to assess economic conditions and inform policy decisions.
Key Facts
- The Sahm Rule signals a recession when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more above its 12-month low.
- The Sahm Rule has accurately identified the start of the last 7 U.S. recessions.
- The indicator provides an early warning signal, typically signaling the start of a recession several months before it is officially declared.
FAQs
Q: What does this economic trend measure?
A: The Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator measures changes in the U.S. unemployment rate to identify the onset of economic recessions.
Q: Why is this trend relevant for users or analysts?
A: The Sahm Rule Indicator serves as an important early warning signal for policymakers and analysts to assess the health of the U.S. economy and inform policy decisions.
Q: How is this data collected or calculated?
A: The indicator is calculated based on the 3-month average change in the national unemployment rate.
Q: How is this trend used in economic policy?
A: The Sahm Rule Indicator is utilized by the Federal Reserve and other institutions to monitor economic conditions and inform policy decisions.
Q: Are there update delays or limitations?
A: The Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator is updated monthly and reflects the latest available unemployment data.
Related Trends
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME), retrieved from FRED.