4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims
IC4WSA • Economic Data from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Latest Value
221,000.00
Year-over-Year Change
-2.75%
Date Range
6/3/2006 - 7/26/2025
Summary
The 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims tracks the number of unemployment insurance claims filed over a rolling 4-week period, smoothing out weekly volatility. This metric provides a critical indicator of labor market health and potential economic shifts.
Analysis & Context
This economic indicator provides valuable insights into current market conditions and economic trends. The data is updated regularly by the Federal Reserve and represents one of the most reliable sources for economic analysis.
Understanding this metric helps economists, policymakers, and investors make informed decisions about economic conditions and future trends. The interactive chart above allows you to explore historical patterns and identify key trends over time.
About This Dataset
This economic indicator represents the average number of new unemployment claims filed over a 4-week period, helping economists and policymakers understand underlying trends in job market dynamics. By using a moving average, the metric reduces short-term fluctuations and provides a more stable view of employment conditions.
Methodology
Data is collected weekly by state unemployment offices and reported to the U.S. Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of initial unemployment claims for the most recent four weeks, which helps normalize weekly variations.
Historical Context
Economists and Federal Reserve officials use this trend to assess labor market strength, predict potential recession risks, and inform monetary policy decisions. Lower initial claims typically suggest a robust job market, while rising claims may signal economic contraction.
Key Facts
- Represents a smoothed view of weekly unemployment insurance claims
- Helps predict potential economic downturns
- Used by policymakers to assess labor market conditions
- Provides more stable trend information compared to weekly data
- Considered a leading economic indicator
FAQs
Q: What does a decreasing 4-week moving average of initial claims indicate?
A: A decreasing trend suggests improving labor market conditions and potential economic growth.
Q: How often is this data updated?
A: The data is typically updated weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Q: Why use a 4-week moving average instead of weekly data?
A: The moving average reduces short-term volatility and provides a more stable, meaningful trend analysis.
Q: What is considered a healthy level of initial claims?
A: Historically, less than 300,000 weekly initial claims is considered indicative of a strong labor market.
Q: How do economists interpret sudden spikes in initial claims?
A: Significant increases might signal potential economic stress, industry disruptions, or broader recessionary trends.
Related Trends
4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment)
CC4WSA
Insured Unemployment Rate in Puerto Rico
PRIINSUREDUR
Insured Unemployment Rate
IURSA
Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation Continued Claims in the U.S. Virgin Islands
PEUCCCVI
Initial Claims in the U.S. Virgin Islands
VIRICLAIMS
Initial Claims
ICSA
Citation
U.S. Federal Reserve, 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims [IC4WSA], retrieved from FRED.
Last Checked: 7/31/2025